We’ve been monitoring the odds for all potential candidates (including a few names that may surprise you), and have included a visual depiction of the opportunities in the graphs and tables below. We’ll continue to update their data throughout the many midterms, scandals, and surprise statements that are guaranteed to come between now and election night. Buckle up! It’s guaranteed to have a little bumpy.
2020 US Presidential Odds
Donald Trump’s first year and a half of office was, by just about any metric, a complete and utter disaster. The POTUS has assaulted the intelligence community, undermined connections with America’s longest-standing allies, supported alleged sexual predators, and controlled the forcible separation of children from their families.
Despite his most scathing scandals and controversies, Trump somehow stays the overwhelming favorite to win the next US Presidential election in 2020. The Donald’s present average likelihood of +110 are 990 points greater than his next closest competitor. That is not only a gap — it’s yawning chasm — and it could become even wider unless something changes soon.
June 28, 2019: Donald Trump is still favored to win against the 2020 Election with -120 average chances, but Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are gaining ground. Harris’ average US Presidential odds went from +1300 on June 10th to +820 on June 28th and Warren’s went from +1700 to +1100 within precisely the same period of time.
June 10, 2019: Andrew Yang is emerging as a real contender with +2100 odds.
May 27, 2019: Oddsmakers seem to be losing faith in Pete Buttigieg, whose typical US Presidential odds lengthened from +1200 on May 16th to +1500 on May 27th.
May 16, 2019: Trump’s 2020 Presidential chances remain unchanged despite damning new taxation records that show he dropped $1 billion in 1985 to 1994.
April 25, 2019: Joe Biden is formally making his movement. The former VP has announced his intentions to run for President in 2020.
March 25, 2019: The Mueller Report is outside and Donald Trump appears to have emerged unscathed… so far. The POTUS saw his odds improve from +110 to +100.
January 22, 2019: Is Donald Trump’s government shutdown shutting him down from re-election as President of the USA in 2020? It definitely seems that way as his odds have lengthened from +120 to +180.
January 10, 2019: Do not look now, but Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a bona fide Republican candidate. Her odds improved significantly from +2300 on December 14th to +1700 on January 10th.
November 7, 2018: Trump’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election jumped from +100 to +110 hours after the Republicans lost the House of Representatives at the US Midterm Elections.
October 31, 2018: Halloween might be a scary time for some, but not for Trump, whose odds of serving a second term have shortened from +110 to +100 despite rampant speculation that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives in the upcoming Midterms.
October 15, 2018: Donald Trump remains the heavy favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election with odds of +110. His next closest competition, Kamala Harris, remains far back in +1000.
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